Air Cargo Demand Grows as Shippers Shun Long Contracts

Global air cargo demand kept growing at the end of the third quarter of 2026, but shippers are moving away from long fixed-rate deals, according to data released by IATA on 29 September and Xeneta on 1 October.

IATA: August demand up 4.4 per cent

IATA said total air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), rose 4.4 per cent year on year in August 2026, and 5.3 per cent for international operations. Capacity fell 0.1 per cent, lifting the global load factor by 2 percentage points to 46 per cent.

All regions grew. North American carriers led with 6.6 per cent growth, Asia-Pacific carriers grew 4.3 per cent and European carriers 4.1 per cent. Middle Eastern carriers were weakest at 1 per cent.

Asia to North America was the strongest trade lane, up 13.2 per cent. Lanes linked to the Gulf shrank: Europe to Middle East fell 12.1 per cent and Middle East to Asia fell 11 per cent, which IATA linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

Fuel remains the pressure point. IATA said jet fuel prices rose 8.3 per cent month on month in August and were 79.2 per cent higher than a year earlier.

Xeneta: September volumes up 6 per cent

Xeneta said global air freight volumes rose 6 per cent year on year in September, while capacity rose 2 per cent. Spot rates averaged $3.10 per kg, 27 per cent higher than a year earlier and 2 per cent above August. Northeast Asia to Europe rose 5 per cent to $4.74 per kg, and Northeast Asia to North America rose 5 per cent to $6.03 per kg.

Short contracts are now the norm

The biggest change is in how capacity is bought. Of new contracts starting in the third quarter of 2026, 60 per cent ran for three months or less, compared with 25 per cent a year earlier, Xeneta said. Twelve-month contracts fell from 40 per cent to 25 per cent of new deals.

Xeneta's Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw said "a one-year fixed rate deal doesn't fit the current conditions," and that shippers want rates that adjust with the market. He added that Xeneta was not seeing signals of a strong peak season, with indicators pointing to a muted final quarter.

Why it matters for transporters and logistics businesses

• Indian shippers of time-sensitive or high-value goods face air freight costs that are still heavily driven by fuel, so short, reviewable contracts may suit them better than fixed annual deals.
• Xeneta noted that unreliable and costly ocean shipping can push some volume to air, a trend it is watching but has not yet seen in its data.
• Road feeder services to and from airports depend on these volumes. Find cargo and warehousing providers, transporters and logistics software providers on BizGrowthUp.

Source: IATA; Xeneta